Kansas public school enrollment declined slightly this year. There were about 5,200 fewer students according to data compiled by the Kansas State Department of Education.
Other states have also reported falling enrollment prompting an examination into the causes of the decline. While a number of policy and funding issues may have had an impact on enrollment, Kansas data suggests the biggest reason is the change in the school-age population. In spite of the declining population, families appear to be choosing public schools over other options at an increasing rate.
The number of students enrolled in a district affects staffing, programs and facilities. Under the current school finance system, it also largely determines how much money schools receive to provide services. Understanding why enrollment is changing can help school leaders plan the best way to respond. Here are the facts behind enrollment trends.
The school-age population is declining. Although the U.S. Census says the Kansas population has been slowing growly, the population under age 18 is dropping. That age group declined by over 38,000 or 5.2 percent between 2010 and 2024. The biggest decline is in the population under age five, which means the trend is likely to continue. While some individual school districts will continue to grow, for many districts there are simply fewer students entering the system.
The pandemic appears to have changed certain enrollment trends. Despite the decline in the school-aged population, public school enrollment increased 2.2 percent from 2011 to 2019, indicating that public schools were increasing their share of the students prior to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. That is partly due to a student shift from accredited private schools, whose enrollment fell 9.5 percent over that period. When the pandemic hit, both public and private schools saw enrollment drop. That trend eventually reversed. Public school enrollment has not yet returned to pre-pandemic highs but is only slightly below 2011 numbers. Private school enrollment numbers remain almost 9 percent lower than in 2011. This drop has taken place even though the state provided funding for about 1,200 students to attend private school in 2022-23.
Other schooling options increased during the pandemic but seem to have leveled off. Because home schools and other non-accredited private schools are not held accountable for enrollment data, the number of such students can only be estimated. The number of children aged 5-17 not attending public or accredited private schools (or not attending any school) was estimated at 6.2 percent of the population in 2011. That percentage declined steadily from 2011 but then rose back above 6 percent in 2021, where it remains. While the pandemic disrupted the decline, the number of home school and other non-accredited private school students remains about the same as in 2011 and does not appear to be growing.
The number of higher-need, higher-cost students continues to increase. Students eligible to receive free meals in public schools topped 200,000 this fall, the highest ever. Low-income students often have more difficulties learning because of factors outside of school. The number of students with disabilities who need special services also reached an all-time high this year. The number of high-need, high-cost students in private schools occurs at much lower percentages than in public schools.
What these trends mean for school leaders. First, many public schools will have fewer students, which will impact the need for staff, programs, and facilities as well as funding. Second, some students have left public education for other options, although the trends do not suggest a major long-term shift. Because some students and families decided on other options in recent years, they could also decide to return. A district’s demonstrated ability to engage with families and meet the needs of students drives that decision. Third, even with fewer students, public schools must prepare to serve an increasing number of students who face greater difficulties in learning.
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